Monday 5 March 2012

A Word on Divergence

The reason why I rely so heavily on Divergence is because it's the most reliable way to determine reversals and continuations of the current trend. I've always came across articles, forum discussions, youtube videos, etc. that all tell me to use some other indicator or method to place orders, and not rely on just divergence. But that is all they say on the subject! Nothing about what indicator would work best!

As far as I can tell the best indicator to work with divergence is the one that comes close to predicting tops and bottoms such as the TTM Scalper indicator, TMA indicators, Stochastic, DTosc, various Fractal indicators, and more of that nature. But even those are not the greatest at picking up the divergence moves. Some of the divergence that appears is gone by the end of the next bar, and by that time any indicator that tries to determine the tops and bottoms is useless. The vast majority of indicators out there need at least one bar to close before making a prediction as to whether the market is making a top or bottom. The rest of the indicators that don't need that one bar to close are recalculating/repainting indicators.

So far I think the best option would be to find divergence in the higher timeframe, and then look to the smaller timeframe for your entry points using those indicators I pointed out. For example, 1 hour timeframe shows divergence, then move to a 15 minute timeframe, and use DTosc for an entry point (stoploss above/below the lasted fractal point; exit by trailing stop). 

And if that doesn't float your boat, and you want to be a little more risky, you can enter as soon as you see the divergence. I've been doing some paper trading with this option, and so far it is not too bad. But like I say it is risky, and high risk is thee enemy of Day Trading. So, maybe you'd want to stick with the multiple timeframe strategy for now.