Tuesday 13 March 2012

Technical Analysis is First, News Second

Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales for the U.S. came out this morning with a positive values, so I would have expected the USD/CAD exchange to go up right? Not so. Because of the current position of the price for USD/CAD would most likely behave negatively from a technical analysis point of view, so the price, instead of going up like it should have, went down (the circled first bar is the downward movement after the Retail Sales was released):



Now, this is the next bar, which does reflect the positive news that was released (all it had to do was drop to the appropriate trend support level before applying the positive news for a upward price movement):