AUD/USD: Elliott Wave Formation... or Upwards Trend?

It is a strange day for the AUS/USD exchange today. As I pointed out in the previous post that the U.S. dollar was going downward due to less than stellar Trade Balance and Employment/Unemployment values, but this should have had a positive effect on the AUD/USD market. Right now the Australian dollar is taking a huge dive, and the only conceivable reason I can think of is that traders are more focused on the AUD/USD forming a downward 5th Elliott wave. It is also quite possible that the price will bounce of the black trend line I've drawn, and start channeling.